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Euribor rises and falls expected at 1.7%

The one-year Euribor, the interest rate that are referenced most mortgages in Spain, will close Feb. 1.7%, 0.20 points above the benchmark of January (1.55%) and 0.5 points compared to February 2010 (1.22%), which adds its eleventh consecutive monthly rise.

The upward movement of the indicator is anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates ahead of schedule and has begun to adjust to this new economic framework, say the analysts polled by Europa Press.

inflationary pressure being exerted by the rising price of oil may lead the ECB to raise by a quarter point interest rate in September, reaching 1.25%.

The initial forecasts did not provide a spike in rates until late 2011 or even early 2012. However, tensions in the Middle East, which have worsened in recent days in Libya, the largest exporter of crude oil from countries like Germany, France and especially Italy, have made copper more strongly the hypothesis of a spike in the price of money in the third quarter.

barrel of Brent, the European benchmark, has come to reach $ 119 this week, maximum of thirty months. Daniel Pingarrón, an analyst at IG Markets, says the fear that the crisis in Libya is not corrected and spread to other oil exporting countries has increased the rise in recent days.

No obstante, los analistas, que en sus primeras previsiones situaban el nivel del Euríbor en el 2% a finales de 2011, consideran que aunque supere esta cota y registre un repunte aproximado de un punto porcentual respecto a diciembre de 2010 (1,52%), no sería "demasiado".

Ignacio Victoriano, analista de Renta 4, señala que este avance es normal, y que el Euríbor continúa en un nivel bajo, por lo que el impacto del repunte va a ser moderado. En este sentido, Pingarrón señala que a pesar de que en los dos primeros meses del año el indicador se ha acercado casi al nivel previsto para el conjunto del año, el índice se mantendrá en una horquilla de entre el 2% y el 2,25%.

However, experts caution that the scenario can change again and that the fluctuations of the crisis, both political and economic force to be cautious with forecasts.

RISE OF THE MORTGAGE.

The increase in February Euribor shares rise on average of the annual review mortgages around 360 euros per year and 108 euros for six-monthly review.

Specifically, a mortgage of about 120,000 euros, to 25 years with a spread of 0.8%, users will pay 538 euros per month compared to the 508 euros they paid in February 2010, ie 30 euros a year. With these same figures, but reference to the September Euribor (1.42%) shares rise by 18 euros per month.

Given the escalation of the Euribor, the Consumers Union of Spain (UCE) has called 'Law of indebtedness' to protect the heritage of families, as it believes that this increase may trigger an avalanche of defaults and foreclosures.

The organization believes that the rise in Euribor will mean "more difficult" for citizens when it comes to paying outstanding loans, especially when they are producing "significant" declines in wages, a "great loss" of power purchasing and an unemployment rate exceeding 20%.

Source: Europa Press

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closed boxes tap Responsibility

The Government maintains that the top end of the necessary recapitalization of the banking and savings is flowing again credit for families and businesses, convinced that if no money in the market, hardly able to leave Spain during the crisis. This idea is disputed by the unions, economists such as Luis de Guindos (Pricewaterhouse) and to technicians of the Bank of Spain, meaning that if the boxes have to find capital to meet the minimum set by the Government, the priority will be that and no credit.
A field experience this week to reveal that the boxes, especially those with more pressing needs of core capital, have already decided to close the tap of credit, especially those having to do with personal credit and consumption, yet the mortgage. No money market fund and only customer operations, ie on those who already have a behavioral basis (receipts, movements, possible default ...). Or new loans or refinancing to avoid blowing the competition that customer. To other users directly, or not offered anything or get interest on the table that deter anyone.
Why is that kind of credit? Personal loans are which consume more capital because they have no support behind except the personal guarantee. There is no mortgage or other property. And the banks if not interested in remaining floors, much less to do with personal belongings. A defaulter in the light means taking money to cover the amount awarded.
There is no joy in the granting of loans, like mortgages are also not above 80% of the appraised value. The latest data reveal that the boxes are a minority of operation (only 20% of total), and almost anecdotal that exceed 100% of assessed value. These are explained in different boxes, embedded in processes of transformation, when they were consulted on a personal loan of up to 15,000 euros to purchase a vehicle. The applicant had a steady job and a monthly net salary of 1,100 euros.

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