The one-year Euribor, the interest rate that are referenced most mortgages in Spain, will close Feb. 1.7%, 0.20 points above the benchmark of January (1.55%) and 0.5 points compared to February 2010 (1.22%), which adds its eleventh consecutive monthly rise.
The upward movement of the indicator is anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates ahead of schedule and has begun to adjust to this new economic framework, say the analysts polled by Europa Press.
inflationary pressure being exerted by the rising price of oil may lead the ECB to raise by a quarter point interest rate in September, reaching 1.25%.
The initial forecasts did not provide a spike in rates until late 2011 or even early 2012. However, tensions in the Middle East, which have worsened in recent days in Libya, the largest exporter of crude oil from countries like Germany, France and especially Italy, have made copper more strongly the hypothesis of a spike in the price of money in the third quarter.
barrel of Brent, the European benchmark, has come to reach $ 119 this week, maximum of thirty months. Daniel Pingarrón, an analyst at IG Markets, says the fear that the crisis in Libya is not corrected and spread to other oil exporting countries has increased the rise in recent days.
No obstante, los analistas, que en sus primeras previsiones situaban el nivel del Euríbor en el 2% a finales de 2011, consideran que aunque supere esta cota y registre un repunte aproximado de un punto porcentual respecto a diciembre de 2010 (1,52%), no sería "demasiado".
Ignacio Victoriano, analista de Renta 4, señala que este avance es normal, y que el Euríbor continúa en un nivel bajo, por lo que el impacto del repunte va a ser moderado. En este sentido, Pingarrón señala que a pesar de que en los dos primeros meses del año el indicador se ha acercado casi al nivel previsto para el conjunto del año, el índice se mantendrá en una horquilla de entre el 2% y el 2,25%.
However, experts caution that the scenario can change again and that the fluctuations of the crisis, both political and economic force to be cautious with forecasts.
RISE OF THE MORTGAGE.
The increase in February Euribor shares rise on average of the annual review mortgages around 360 euros per year and 108 euros for six-monthly review.
Specifically, a mortgage of about 120,000 euros, to 25 years with a spread of 0.8%, users will pay 538 euros per month compared to the 508 euros they paid in February 2010, ie 30 euros a year. With these same figures, but reference to the September Euribor (1.42%) shares rise by 18 euros per month.
Given the escalation of the Euribor, the Consumers Union of Spain (UCE) has called 'Law of indebtedness' to protect the heritage of families, as it believes that this increase may trigger an avalanche of defaults and foreclosures.
The organization believes that the rise in Euribor will mean "more difficult" for citizens when it comes to paying outstanding loans, especially when they are producing "significant" declines in wages, a "great loss" of power purchasing and an unemployment rate exceeding 20%.
Source: Europa Press
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